Speed ratings are compiled for every UK horse race, using our own standard times and class pars. Adjustments are made for any changes to the published race distance (due to rail movements etc). An accurate assessment of the going is produced as part of the calculation, which is on the same scale as the BHA going-stick readings, for easy comparison. The final speed figure for each horse is then a very accurate assessment of how fast it ran on that day.
Each horse’s previous speed ratings are processed using various weightings for Last Time Out, 2nd to 7th relevant runs, speed/class ratio, distance filters etc., then combined with statistics for jockey, trainer and stallion performance, and factors for today’s weight, going and draw conditions, giving a final single Predictive Rating for today’s race (on a normalised scale of 70-100).
The Predictive ratings are then fed into our pricing engine, which accurately translates the ratings into winning probabilities for each horse in today’s race, using advanced statistical probability maths. This final win probability’s reciprocal is the decimal Win price, which then has a margin added for backing, and subtracted for laying, in order to give us value prices to use as our minimums and maximums required to bet. (Place market odds are also calculated at this stage).
How to Win using My Horse Odds:-
Back horses at higher prices than displayed in the BackWin *1.5 column, to the right of the horse’s name. This ensures we are always betting at 50% value or better, when compared to our Win price (left column, indicating the calculated true chance of winning).
We suggest using a maximum Win price (left column) of 15.0. Our tests show consistent profits up to this point. This filter is catered for with blue highlighting of the left Win column and the BackWin column in the price display. Some people may want to have a maximum Win price of say 7.0 or 10.0, or use the top half of the field, or only bet the top 3 or 4 when value (which will affect the number of value bets placed). Another ploy is to set a minimum trading price of say 10.0 or 15.0.
Lay horses at lower prices than displayed in the LayWin/2 column. Max trading price of 6.0 at Betfair Exchange SP is a good idea.
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