Speed ratings are compiled for every UK horse race, using our own standard times and class pars. Adjustments are made for any changes to the published race distance (due to rail movements etc). An accurate assessment of the going is produced as part of the calculation, which is on the same scale as the BHA going-stick readings, for easy comparison. The final speed figure for each horse is then a very accurate assessment of how fast it ran on that day.
Each horse’s previous speed ratings are processed using various weightings for Last Time Out, 2nd to 7th relevant runs, speed/class ratio, distance filters etc., then combined with statistics for jockey, trainer and stallion performance, and factors for today’s weight, going and draw conditions, giving a final single Predictive Rating for today’s race (on a normalised scale of 70-100).
The Predictive ratings are then fed into our pricing engine, which accurately translates the ratings into winning probabilities for each horse in today’s race, using advanced statistical probability maths. This final win probability’s reciprocal is the decimal Win price, which then has a margin added for backing, and subtracted for laying, in order to give us value prices to use as our minimums and maximums required to bet. (Place market odds are also calculated at this stage).
How to Win using My Horse Odds:-
Back horses at higher prices than displayed in the BackWin *1.5 column, to the right of the horse’s name. This ensures we are always betting at 50% value or better, when compared to our Win price (left column, indicating the calculated true chance of winning).
We suggest using a maximum Win price (left column) of 15.0. Our tests show consistent profits up to this point. This filter is catered for with blue highlighting of the left Win column and the BackWin column in the price display. Some people may want to have a maximum Win price of say 7.0 or 10.0, or use the top half of the field as displayed in price order, or only bet the top 3 or 4 when value (any of which will affect the number of value bets placed). Another ploy is to set a minimum trading price of say 10.0 or 15.0.
Lay horses at lower prices than displayed in the LayWin/2 column. Max trading price of 6.0 at Betfair Exchange SP is a good idea.
EXAMPLE RACE ASSESSMENT :
6.05 Kempton 26.11.2020
Speed Ratings for LastTimeOut to 7th relevant runs, with Stats for Draw, Jockey, Trainer, Stallion and Weight(today), together form Predictive Ratings :
Predictive Ratings are converted into Trading Odds, using our bespoke pricing engine. The Win column shows our predicted chance of winning (100% book, no profit margin). The BackMin price signifies the minimum price to order on Betfair Exchange to have at least +50% profit. All prices are decimal including stake, as per Betfair Exchange :
PF is the Place Factor, derived within the calculation of the Place odds. It can be used as a direct comparison to bookies’ place terms (i.e. 1/4 the odds is PF 4.0, or 1/5 the odds is PF 5.0). If there are 3 places in the place market, the Place3 column will give a 300% book (If there are 4 places, Place4 gives a 400% book). Calculate your own value odds from the Place odds (e.g. by multiplying by 1.5 to give +50% value for backing on the Place market).
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